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You’ve likely heard for years that 88 percent of churched high schoolers drop out of the church—permanently—by the time they graduate from college. Well, we challenged a class of youth ministry students at Bethel College in Indiana to either debunk or support the claimAs part of the for-credit course, students were required to write a graded paper. I gave them many topic options, but I also promised to publish any well-researched article that could dispel or support the much-repeated assertion that nine out of 10 church-attending high schoolers will drop out of church by the time they graduate from college. This article by Bethel student Tom Carpenter floored me, so I’m keeping my promise. —Rick Lawrence, editor
More important than church attendance, is the number of children who share the core beliefs of their Christian parents after they become adults. Homeschooled children share the beliefs of their parents 93% of the time. For churched youth who attend public school this figure drops to 15%. It's time for parents to step up and be the educator of your children, as commanded in both the OT and NT. Brian D. Ray, Ph D., Homeschoolers Grown Up, 2004.
Donald R. Holmes 11:01:11am on 1/07/2010
OffensiveIt is strange to me that we take a single church and develop a standard off it. I have pastored three different churches, and I always hear the same thing: The youth are the future of our church. I asked the youth leader at each church I have pastored, to give me a list of all the children that have ever passed through our door and became "members". Then I asked "where are they." If in fact they are the "future" of our church , the church was in real trouble. we saw easily 80 percent drop out. The church I am in now, i have been in 9 years and am convinced the modern youth group movement that segregates and allows them Play time is not working. We have abandoned it, and I hope in the next 10 years to be able to provide some better statistics.
Daniel W. Michael 9:12:13am on 12/15/2009
OffensiveTo start, let me explain that I am a Children and Family minister. I think this is important for you to know because I feel like some of what is being said here comes from a place of defensiveness, and rightly so. Youth ministry has taken the brunt of criticism over these statistics, whether accurate or not, and that is overly simplistic. Church leaders read these stats and then make outrageous claims that youth ministries are nothing but games and pizza parties. Instead of shouldering the burden for a tragedy that is symptomatic of an entire system, we place the blame squarely at the feet of the youth ministry. It is as if we are saying "Youth minister, we give you good kids and you screw them up." When I believe the reality is that the whole system of discipleship needs to be inspected. What am I as a children's minister doing that will assist the youth ministry? What is the minister of education doing with the adults that will produce stronger parents and mentors. What is being preached from the pulpit? Is worship relevant and engaging to youth? There are many questions that need to be answered from every ministry of the church. Any problem in the body is an issue of the entire body, not just one component. What we need is an overall biblical discipleship plan that the entire church can circle around. We need to empower and equip parents to do their jobs as the primary spiritual leader in the lives of their children. We need other adults to in the lives of kids who can either mimic what their parents are saying, or in some cases, be the primary spiritual leader. Whatever we do, denying there is a problem, being content with a 40% dropout rate, or blaming the youth group is not the answer.
JamesB 6:11:20am on 11/25/2009
OffensiveI'm very pleased to see the caliber of thought and writing coming out of my hometown of Mishawaka. My father taught at Bethel College Indiana for 19 years. And I thought this analysis was careful, but it missed out on a conceptual argument. It states that people get back into church in their 60's. I believe this is a faulty argument, because it doesn't take into account generational differences. More valid statistics would cover the same or similar bodies of people at 5 or 10 year increments. Because today's twenty-year-old at age sixty-five, will not have the same social mores or influences as today's senior citizen. I think there is a larger chance that church attendance will decline in subsequent generations. It's the law of diminishing returns. HOWEVER, if churches continue to adapt with culture, and offer relevent, resonant relationships with others and Christ, we could look at revival rather than decline.
Ellie White-Stevens 9:08:09am on 8/26/2009
OffensiveI realize my comment is a little late, but reading this article and especially the responses for the first time has really stirred my soul. First, I would like to propose something (I'm sure I've heard this said somewhere, so if you originated the idea, I give you full credit): Is it possible many young people walk away from the church after high school because they were never 'born again' in the first place, as the Bible says, "They went out from us, but they were not of us; for if they had been of us, they would have continued with us" (1 John 2:19)? They went to youth group because they had friends there, or they went because their parents made them or somehow pressured them to go, or they went because it was the 'thing' to do, or they went because they loved their youth worker, etc. But they didn't go because they loved Jesus and they weren't going for Him. So, naturally, they stop attending church when youth group is over and done. Second, is it possible PART of the reason why there's a huge drop off in church attendance is due to the fact that many graduates go to colleges in different cities from where they grew up going to church? Did anyone other than myself find it extremely difficult to find a church in their new college town? I went to a few different churches, but grew frustrated for various reasons. I'm not saying that this was a valid reason for me to NOT go to church, I'm just saying it was my reason for quite some time and I can see it being a reason for other young people as well. Furthermore, I can see how the new demands and responsibilities (as Tom pointed out) that come with young adulthood can squeeze out the strong desire to attend church regularly. Often times, when you're just starting a job, you pretty much have to work whatever hours you can. Unfortunately, being the low man on the totem pole means you work weekends when a lot of churches hold their only weekly services. Again, it's not necessary a valid excuse for not going to church, but I can understand how it becomes an excuse. Finally, as a young volunteer youth worker myself, I want to make a declaration: Forgive me for my stupidity, if you believe me stupid, but I am willing to "waste" my life sowing seeds of truth in the lives of teenagers for the glory of Christ. I agree with Brad, that it is the primary responsibility of the parents to disciple their children. And I applaud him and his wife for ministering to their children, pointing them to Christ and guiding them with the Word. That's fantastic! But, at least where I live, that doesn't happen very often in families. Most of the teens I minister to are from split families with divorced parents. A couple of kids come from families where the parents are still together, but biblical discipleship is non-existent within the family. Two boys (brothers) are actually discipled and guided with the Word at home by their parents. Needless to say I don't expect those two at youth group every Sunday night. But my point is this, I would rather them all be ministered to in an imperfect way than not ministered to at all. I would rather them come to youth group once a month and be presented the gospel by adults who love them, than for them never to be presented the gospel at all. Why? Because the Word says this: "...the gospel is the power of God for salvation to everyone who believes, the Jew first and also to the Greek" (Romans 1:16) and because the Word says to "be steadfast, immovable, always abounding in the work of the Lord, knowing that in the Lord your labor is not in vain" (1 Corinthians 15:58). Furthermore, "faith comes from hearing, and hearing through the Word of Christ". We can argue all we want about youth ministry's effectiveness. Perhaps youth ministry is not the most effective way of reaching teenagers. But it's more effective than not trying to reach them at all. At the end of the day, I believe the Word of God. Besides, even if we preach the gospel to teenagers for years and never see a single convert, it doesn't necessarily mean we are preaching it wrong or that our methods are bad. It could possibly mean that we're in good company: Jeremiah preached repentance for years and never saw the fruit of it. "Let us not grow weary of doing good, for in due season we will reap, if we do not give up." (Galatians 6:9) With love through Christ, Jeremy B.
Jeremy B. 1:05:25pm on 5/19/2009
OffensiveMark, Thanks for blowing on these embers.... I think Tom's “Busting” article is actually a lot like what you're asking for—he compares various stats from various sources, analyzes their differences, then takes his best shot at a number. He's not only taking Gallup's number and running with it. In any case, one subtext to the article is that a grad student can spend a few hours researching a commonly accepted stat and blow holes through it. That's a (sort of) indictment of those in the church who latch on to over-the-top negative stats with very little critical push-back. The origin of the original SBC 88% stat was a small gathering of SBC youth pastors who ballparked a number—somehow that now-debunked number is harder to kill than a Twilight vampire. Why are we so in love with stats about the church that obviously smell bad? And if it smells bad, we should find out why. Not long ago Dr. Christian Smith told me he was so fed up with the way research is handled by Christian organizations that he'd decided to write something about it for Books & Culture—I reprinted a portion of what he wrote in GROUP. But here's a link to the full article—it's a biting critique of what has come to be common practice in the church (http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2007/janfeb/5.11.html). I took some shots from youth pastors who wrote to tell me that the “real stat” doesn't really matter—they told me that whether it's 88% or 40%, we're still losing kids. I responded that the truth always matters, and it's just this kind of abdication of rigorous thinking that offers bait to those who've stereotyped the Christian community. The bigger question is: What percentage of “dropout” kids is acceptable? 5%? 10%? 20%? Jesus said that His way is narrow, and few are on it. And the way of destruction is broad, and many are on it. Is that a critique or a statement of fact? He's “not willing that any should perish,” but He knows many will. I'm not willing that many will perish, either—but His will and my will are boundaried when it comes to the will of the “other.” Anyway, I'm in way deeper than I intended.... I think this issue exposes stuff we should pay attention to—stats can be a flashlight in the darkness or a bludgeon held by a thug.... Grace, Rick
Rick Lawrence 6:05:46pm on 5/12/2009
OffensiveI am really glad to see an article about this. Yes the 88% number tells a different story. I've had close access to the SBC data (as well as Barna's), and they are really measuring and defining things differently. But so is Gallup. Gallup is looking at those of Jewish and Christian Faith. 40% may be accurate if we assume that behavior changes similarly between faith categories, but we don't know that. Remember data tells a story, the SBC data and the Barna data tell accurate stories, the proble is that most people oversimplify the data and tell misleading stories. Much of this is unavoidable to some degree. But this article does the same thing! It oversimplifies and looks with less scrutiny at the Gallup data, then claims to bust the drop out myth! It isn't an apples to apples comparison and the analysis while good, does not completely use parallel methods to make its case. It is not helpful to simply say 40% is more accurate than 88%, but to help the reader understand the different stories each data set is telling and to discuss the inadequacies and limitations inherent in all data gathering. From this we can then create a more accurate composite of what is taking place. The real error related to this data in youth ministry culture is how we use the data(and I have been guilty of this too). I would rather see an article illustrating how various groups have "misused" the data and thus created the "myth" rather than trying to simply debunk the data from two credible sources.
Mark Matlock 2:05:42pm on 5/12/2009
OffensiveAfter serving over 20 years in various youth ministries, I have seen the effectiveness of the men and woman involved in the lives of the students. I see a need for people of the Body to get engaged in the lives of the youth and although Brad has talked about the Biblical aspects of a "no youth ministry" I believe that he has forgotten the cultural relevance of the age of children, and when they were out on their own. This age was usually somewhere in the early teens. especially if they were apprenticed to a journeyman or master craftsman. Young women were often married and delivering children anywhere from 13 to 18 on a very common basis. Our culture also has no right of passage for young men to accept the roles and responsibilities of manhood on his life. I am a father of 3 teens and am intimately involved in the lives of the youth that are in our ministry. Where do these young men and woman of the body go for maturity and counseling what are we as the body of Christ doing with them. The biblical model of discipleship is one of intimate one on one development in the lives of individuals, this needs to be wholly available to young men and women of God. We need to come along side them as they transition from boy to man and girl to woman and allow them to have opportunity grow and develop outside of the home. I have encouraged my teens to find a respective man or woman of God to have a discipleship relationship with so they can grow. It is too hard to be parent, teacher and friend, to let your children grow and be independent. This takes men and women of God actively taking part in the lives of your children. Outside of you personally, I take my role as parent very seriously and am active in my guidance and teaching of my own children. The other aspect is what of the many young men and women who have only one parent and are missing the key gender specific teachings of the parent that is not there? This is unfortunately a very common problem in our society and it takes men and women of God using the gifts and strengths that the Lord has given them by the spirit working alongside single parents with their children. I realize that I was unequipped to deal with many difficulties that children had before I became a parent and was involved in youth ministry. At the same time I was actively showing a lifestyle and character of a man of God to the teens in my care. Setting a role model for their next phase of life. Turning them back to their parents and making them understand that their parents were like any other parent and that they need to love and respect them, To follow them and be examples of Christ to their own parents even when times were difficult for them. As to the article of drop outs I realize the numbers and what you are saying but at the same time I have seen with my own years of experience that the number is higher than 40% Kids are lost after they leave the church and they are away from home. The gallop poll you refer too is a control group not all teens that transition to college. The people at life way research have conducted their own poll and have a 70% drop out statistic. I appreciate what you have written yet at the same time isn't 1 too many.
Rob pinches 6:02:53am on 2/13/2009
OffensiveNo offense to well meaning Youth Pastors and to Mr. Carpenter who wrote this article, but as someone who served in the youth ministry trenches for five years myself I believe wholeheartedly that the articles above are merely wishful thinking. While I do belive that youth pastors can play a supportive role to parents by being another adult who is interested in the spiritual nurture of their children, I believe it is foolhardy for anyone to think that this experiment in ministry specialists (i.e. childrens and youth) is actually succeeding. The reality as I have seen it and heard from others in the field are that we have these young people during a short period of their lives and at best we are only with them a few hours a week. During the rest of the time most are not receiving strong informational and incarnational witnessing from their parents who themselves have the Biblical mandate to raise their children in the faith. This leaves students immersed in a decidedly anti-Christian culture where they are bombarded with false worldviews and they lack the ability to properly discern truth because most have never been taught it. The Nehemiah Institute and the Barna Group have shown that most Christian youth do not hold to consistent Biblical Worldview (and that is putting it mildly). The reality is that most parents today were failed by their own parents and so today's parents need experienced mentors who have successfuly raised their children in the faith. I hate to point out the obvious, but the only theological basis for youth ministry is that which is contrived and made to fit. It is clear from Scripture that ministry to children is to take place primarily through parents and the church needs to educate and equip parents for this purpose and not delegate this responsibility to well-meaning but ill-equiped youth pastors. At the risk of offending most of your members, very few youth pastors have raised children to adulthood and many aren't even married much less parents. Therefore, they are the wrong choice for this assignment. In addition to their inexperience, I've also noticed that while most youth pastors understand youth culture better, they also lack spiritual maturity and they have very poor theological training. Furthermore, most youth pastors only last in a position for a couple years before they move on (it's not uncommon for a teenager to have three or more youth pastors from grade 6 through 12) just at a time wheen young people need consistency. While I don't agree with his conclusions, at least Steve Wright in his book ReThink is honest and takes a good hard look at the failures of modern youth ministry. Instead of defending the broken system, I think that Mr. Lawrence and company need to return to the Bible and see what it says about ministry to children. My wife and I homeschool our three children with a curricula that supports a Biblical Worldview and we hold family worship every night, which includes singing, Bible study and application, as well as prayer. My wife and I are passionate about our faith and in passing it on to our children through education and role modeling incarnationally. This is our attempt to fulfill Deuteronomy 6 and other passages regarding perenting. I believe that Biblical Manhoodand Womanhood is also sorely missing in the Christian home today and if we are going to reach children for Christ we need to model what the home should look like Biblically. Unfortunately, more often than not, Youth Ministry harms families today because most parents do not know better and think they are doing what they should be doing by sending their children to a church with a "good" youth program. Parenting and passing on our faith is hard work and it takes sacrifice. Sadly, most parents who rely on church programming and silo ministries are going to be deeply disappointed by the results. The church needs to return this responsibility back to the parents and support them in that role rather than usurping it. If the parents do not know how to do it then the church needs to raise up mature Christians who have successfully parented to mentor them. Gotta run!
Brad Melton 11:08:36pm on 8/17/2008
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